Garrett 대 희 “Dae Hee” Edmark
Nov 16, 2023, 12:54PM
Evaluating North Korea's Nuclear Capability.
The United States has experienced twelve presidential administrations from 1953 to 2023. The two-dominant (Republican & Democrat) parties have gone through multiple reconstructive phases, shifts in priority and the realignment of economic & socio-political stances, while the United States dominant parties saw significant changes in the 1980’s and 1990’s and again in the early 2000’s to the mid-2010’s. In the same time span of 1953-2023, North Korea has experienced three dictatorial changes all characteristically unique and chronologically conducive to the consolidation of domestic social and financial power within their respective regimes. The regime of Kim Il-Sung focused on establishing complete (socio)political and (socio)economic coercion over the state through populism-based ‘completely self-reliant’ propaganda. His son, Kim Jung-Il (a fan of the arts,) uniquely continued the consolidation of social coercion through the expungement and replacement of all foreign literature, media and art for exclusively state-produced literature, media and art. The third-born son of the late Kim Jung-Il, Kim Jung-Un assumed power in 2011. His regime has been characterized as the most military-centric, brutish and violent of the three; in addition, the state has increased its interest in nuclearization astronomically in Jung-Un’s assumption to power. Additionally, Jung-Un’s regime has conducted a 706.25% increase in ballistic missile tests in comparison to his father. Despite this, no major political party or politician has established or provided a firm stance or plan of action regarding North Korea’s nuclear program in South Korea or the United States; However, many political analysts have stated that their continued nuclear development increases the likelihood of a ballistic missile or nuclear offensive.
Throughout decades, the United States’ strategy in regard to the Korean peninsula has remained the same (centric to both United States interest and a maintenance of peace within both the peninsula and Eastern Asia.) It’s agreed by politicians indiscriminately of party-affiliation that the accelerated growth in North Korea’s Nuclear Program is a point of concern; however, Over the course of multiple characteristically diverse North Korean regimes, the containment strategy has remained the same. Barring multiple failed diplomatic (denuclearization) attempts, there are multiple courses of action available to the United States that not only continue to maintain peace and bolster United States interest long term alongside the denuclearization of the peninsula.
A Historical Overview Regarding the Over-Militarization of the State
During Imperial Japan's siege of the Peninsula and the easternmost portions of China, the northern portion of the peninsula aided Mao Zedong’s China in their defense from Imperial Japan during the Second World War; in the war's wake, A debate of congruent ideologies amongst the United States-occupied southern portion and the Communist-backed northern portion led to a three-year active conflict (The Korean War, 1950-1953.) Through the Korean Armistice which was reached in 1953. The peninsula was divided at the 38th parallel. The United States aided in South Korea’s establishment and development as a democratic state whilst the Northern state was established and backed by the Soviet Union and its Chinese neighbors under an autocratic style of governance. In 1953, Kim Il Sung ‘founded’ the state under a socialist military-centric regime. The principles that sit at the foundation of the state are ‘Juche’ (State-Reliance) and ‘Songun’ (Military-First Politics) and after 70 years, these principles have remained center points to their governing system. Il-Sung's regime was characterized by its focus on the consolidation of power through populism. In Kim Il-Sung's wake, his eldest son, Kim Jung-Il assumed power. Under Kim Jung-Il, the regime maintained a focus in the consolidation of domestic power over its citizens. Additionally, as a fan of the arts, the Supreme Leader focused on the replacement of foreign media, art and literature in exchange for domestic, state produced media, art and literature. In 1966, Jung-Il became the first Supreme Leader to serve as the Director of the Motion Pictures and Arts division in the Propaganda and Agitation department. In 1978, famous South Korean filmmaker Shin Sang-Ok and his (renowned actress) wife Choi Eun-Hee were kidnapped in Hong Kong and taken to Pyongyang. They were instructed to begin the development of North Korea’s cinematographic industry for the usage of both international recognition and domestic propaganda usage. Shin and Choi produced multiple films for the North Korean state before defecting in 1986. Jung-Il’s (propaganda-centric) infusion of the arts into the state unequivocally played a massive role in the state's accelerated consolidation of social coercion and ‘juche’ principles.
Following the death of the former ‘Supreme Leader’ Kim Jung-Il in 2011, His third eldest son, Kim Jung Un assumed power. In his administration a concentrated focus on military spending is notable. While the exact size of the Northern Portion of the Korean Peninsula’s Nuclear arsenal is unclear, there has been a continued emphasis on the state's desire in the development of nuclear weapons. Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il ruled the North Korean state for a combined 58 years, over the course of their reigns they combined for a total of thirty-one ballistic missile tests. Since Kim Jung-Un’s appointment to Supreme Leader In 2012, His regime has conducted 129 ballistic missiles tests. In 70 years, the Korean regime has experienced three dictatorial changes over three generations within the Kim bloodline; each regime has served as a towering figure in the consolidation of domestic power (in their own unique respective styles.) Throughout these characteristically unique regime changes, China has remained present throughout. From the Northern state's inception into the present, China has remained a/the primary benefactor to the state's economic and political ‘success.’ In regard to trade, China accounts for 80-85% of North Korean imports/exports annually as a result, Chinese influence is a leverageable asset in the goal of North Korean denuclearization.
A Solution(?)
While the exact size of the Northern Portion of the Korean Peninsula’s Nuclear arsenal is unclear, there has been a continued emphasis on the state's desire in the development of nuclear weapons. As stated previously, Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-Il ruled the North Korean state for a combined 58 years, over the course of their reigns, the state has documented a 706.25% increase in ballistic missile tests. Since Kim Jung-Un’s appointment to Supreme Leader In 2011, His regime has conducted 129 ballistic missiles tests. Despite the state's economic woes, the accelerated development in North Korea’s nuclear program is beyond financially unsustainable. Nearly 25% of the country's GDP is allocated to the military, nuclear and defense budget whilst the citizens of the northern state are starving and dying. For reference, the average military defense expenditure sits at 5.9%. The obsessive relationship of North Korea and its Nuclear Program has made it clear that the denuclearization of the peninsula and stripping the state of its ‘treasured sword’ will not be an easy task.
Historically, There’s a lack of trust from North Korea in their dealings with ‘western countries.’ For example, during the 1970’s many Swedish companies viewed the Northern portion of the peninsula as an economically underdeveloped market. Companies such as Volvo attempted to make an account for themselves within North Korea. In 1974, North Korea imported $74m worth of equipment, machinery and product. Since then, 1,000+ Volvos have occupied the North Korean streets since the ‘70’s; however, the invoice still remains unpaid to this day. The accumulation of debt has increased from $74m to $303m as of 2023 As a result, realistically, due to the historically strained relationship between the United States and North Korea, the process of denuclearization will most likely have to be conducted through a state with leverageable power over the North Korean state (such as China.)
While the United States has maintained the same approach in the peninsula historically, the implication of nuclear weapons in the possession of the state and the prospect of a North Korean nuclearized offensive is grim. The current United States containment plan under-accounts for the obsessive fixation that North Korea has displayed in their nuclear development. If North Korea continues prolonged development of nuclear weapons without genuine intervention, Eventually, a third world war could become the sole solution to denuclearizing the peninsula; however, right now invasion is not plausible due to the diplomatic reach of North Korea (Russia and China). In fact, one could argue that the Nuclearization of the southern portion would only intensify tensions and imply all but positive sentiment. Despite the present ideological congruence of The United States and China, the best course of action for the United States would be the development of a mutual-interest alliance amongst the East Asian hegemon (China) and their North American hegemonic counterpart (USA). North Korea’s economic and political dependence on China is an extremely notable leveraging point to the denuclearization of the peninsula. In a perfect world, The United States can peacefully denuclearize the peninsula risk-free; however, The complexities of international diplomacy inherently complexify this prospect.
